“Prevention Paradox”: Drosten warning sent to all Lockdown critic

The intensive stations are not German filled hospitals even half. The triggers in many people the feeling that the Virus was so bad, measures such as Lockdown pointless. Virologist Drosten explains why these people are wrong. Behind them is the “prevention Paradox”.

It determines the scientific Corona-debate like no other: Christian Drosten. The chief virologist at the Charité hospital in Berlin is one of the most sought-after men in Germany. He is the man who explains to us since the beginning of the Corona pandemic, the Virus.

However, not only in this country, you know the Top doctors. Also the “Guardian” called Drosten recently “Germany’s leading Covid-19-experts”. With the British newspaper, he spoke about the Situation in Germany and its role in the crisis.

Currently, you see “half-empty intensive care wards” in hospitals. This was a good sign, showing that early on people were tested, and the epidemic could be stopped accordingly.

However, for many people, the resentment triggers. The feeling is not wide, measures such as business closures or, for example, a mask of duty to be excessive, even pointless, to have been – where the Situation in Germany seems not to be critical.

“Now comes what I the ‘prevention Paradox’ call,” said Drosten of the British newspaper. “People say that we have overreacted.”

  • All the news about the outbreak of Coronavirus read in the News Ticker

“People do not understand why your business must close”

This fact keep him awake at night. “You don’t understand, why their shops have to close. You only look at what is happening here – not the Situation in other countries, for example in New York or Spain,“ said Drosten.

“For a lot of German, I am the Evil that paralyses the economy. I get death threats, I’ll give it to the police.“ Even more worrying for him, messages from other people. “People say you have three children and you’re Worried about the future. It is not my fault, but these statements keep me awake at night.“

In the past week, a graphic from the Robert Koch-fired-Institute such allegations. The curve for the course of Infection, which had been published by the Institute showed that the reproduction rate (R) have already been located before the Lockdown at about 1. RKI

The measures came at exactly the right time

This critic, however, forget one crucial point. It does not mean that the measures were meaningless, but that they were imposed at the right time. The only way a steeper increase in Germany could be prevented.

That would explain why it came in other European countries such as France, Spain and Italy, however, a steep increase, also explains epidemiologist Gérard Krause from the Helmholtz centre for infection protection, the FOCUS of Online assessment to the RKI graphics asked.

Because of the Shutdown relative to the curve of the respective countries had been decided only later. “The fact that this very massive bundle of measures should have had the Shutdown has no influence on the spread, I can hardly imagine,” stresses the Helmholtz researchers.

Overall, he sees in the RKI publication currently, therefore, no contradiction to the view that these interventions of the Shutdown have contributed to a slowing of the pandemic in Germany.

Read more on the topic:

  • Experts reject criticism that the Shutdown was pointless

First relaxations: Drosten second wave fears

Meanwhile, we are already a step further. The first measures were relaxed. The first school classes be allowed back in the classroom, some shops are allowed to open under certain conditions again. In the Details of the Federation and the Länder are, however, not always in agreement.

Since the States could specify in terms of the easing measures of its own rules, fears Drosten, that “we will see in the interpretation of this Plan, a lot of creativity”. The virologist is Worried that the reproduction number to rise again, and Germany will experience a second wave.

“The easing measures are much, much more difficult, because you have to say because it is not so clear, you could, binary can decide, either we make it or we don’t do it,” says sociologist Armin Nassehi. In an Interview with “Deutschlandfunk” he stressed how hard it is to make correct decisions and to reach the population on understanding.  

Reported corona virus cases in Germany (click on your state)


Sociologist: “You don’t see the damage, the remained are”

There is a lack of clarity, with what speed it is set loose through the areas in which you start. Also, the uncertainty would be, what would happen should it actually come to pay back to an increase of the Infection, whether the country can economically afford a second Shutdown. Also for families, the Situation was stressful. “At the Moment it’s incredibly difficult to make a politically correct decision”, says the sociologist.

He also leads the “prevention Paradox”. “It’s the voices that say, well, we have found that the clinics are not overloaded, maybe it wouldn’t have taken this shutdown, which is certainly the case,” he said in an Interview, there is growing already.

The Paradox: “You can see the damage that was left. And perhaps the imminent us again.“

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