Coronavirus: A second wave could be prevented, according to experts
Currently, in Germany, as in other countries, many of the loosened measures to contain the Coronavirus again. However, experts warn that the danger is still not banned a long time ago. It is assumed that further contagion waves. However, this could be, according to the scientists prevented.
The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) estimates in the Corona-crisis with one or more further waves of Infection. The well-known Charité-virologist Christian Drosten has warned of a new wave that could hit Germany with greater force than before. However, this could possibly be prevented.
Relaxations seem to have led to any Neuanstieg have
According to a recent communication from the University of Leipzig, the spread of the epidemic in Germany, Saxony and Leipzig goes back further.
Among the measures taken, the currently estimated reproduction rate R of the SARS-Cov-2 Virus in Germany, Saxony and Leipzig, according to estimates of professionals at the University of Leipzig under 1 remains.
Prof. Dr. Markus Scholz from the Institute for Medical Informatics, statistics and epidemiology of the Medical faculty has now modeled in a further step, the further development of the epidemic:
“The loosening of 20. April seem to have led to any Neuanstieg. We predict that a contact of intensification is approximately 40 percent, without that, the epidemic flares up again.“
Dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic forecast
Scholz and his colleagues have developed a model for the dynamics of SARS-CoV predict 2 epidemic.
According to the figures, it will be periodically adjusted in line with the data of the Saxon state Ministry for social Affairs, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) and other sources.
The Leipzig scientists estimate the reproductive rate R but other than that RKI: In their model, the Rate will be smoothed more so that the weekend effects are less strong.
In the case of moderate easing, a second wave could well be avoided
As it says in the message, results in happen to the current modeling of the Saxon Infection, that in the case of a moderate easing of measures to 11. May, a second wave can be avoided.
This would be the case if the number of daily new reported test, positive, and occupied ITS beds (intensive) also in accordance with the 11. May not rise, on average, more.
“We expect in this scenario, every day about 20 new test will be positive in Saxony. You have to closely monitors whether these numbers range significantly from the control. In this case, a second wave is to be feared that could develop, depending on the circumstances, different quickly,“ explains Prof. Scholz.
Contact intensification only to a certain extent
To avoid this Situation, there must be the contact intensification only to a certain extent, of about 40 percent.
A specific number of “allowed” contacts, one could not deduce, because the intensity of Contact is dependent on many factors, such as the number or the proximity to people.
About half of the intensity of Contacts compared to times before the Lockdown could be used as a guide.
According to Scholz, that there could be more easing only if further accompanying measures such as a Corona-Warning-App, or more extensive Tests are established. Like other professionals also Markus Scholz holds the now-discussed limit of 50 new infections per week per 100,000 inhabitants is too high.
“Such high Numbers per week, we rarely had. A follow-up of contacts, I think, is then extremely difficult,“ says the scientist.
Data in children is currently very weak
The Leipzig-based Epidemiological and epidemiologists have also analyzed the infection to happen in children and the results of the present studies compared. The history of COVID-19 in children is therefore much milder.
It is unclear, however, whether children are affected just as often or less often than adults from infections.
The proportion of test-positive children to test positive of all age groups in most of the published statistics is low. It is, however, not taken into account is often that children are generally tested less frequently.
Some studies report that the percentage testing positive children within all of the tested children’s failure in comparison to the test positive rate for adults is similar or lower. However, the data were collected often in situations where due to the measures to curb the entry of the Virus in the age group of the children was small.
It is also unclear whether the infectivity of the children differs from the adult. Studies, the a lower infection rate in families or in the population, reports by children, have to pay according to the message, often very small case or have taken place in situations in which the entry in the group of children as a minor can be presumed.
Virus concentration in children is not significantly smaller than in adults
The concentration of Virus in the pharynx itself appears in children is not significantly smaller than in adults.
“There could be, in the future, more insight, if studies from countries are available, which have already gained more experience with the open day-care centres and schools during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as Sweden and Denmark,” Prof. Markus Scholz.
“We recommend, at the Opening of day-care centres and schools with appropriate precautions. Examples of this could be smaller group sizes, shifts, and regular Monitoring of the care staff and possibly the children, for example by means of infrared temperature measurement.“
In any case, the development of the epidemic in this Segment is observed, due to the intensive contact situation should be observed closely. (ad)